Flash Update

2024 Outlook: Global Equities

Manas Gautam

Head of Global Endurance, Counterpoint Global

Tuesday, December 12, 2023

Keep Calm & Carry On

KEY POINTS
1. We remain focused on company-specific fundamentals. While market conditions and macro events change year-to-year, company fundamentals drive share price appreciation over the long-term, which, across portfolio holdings, have largely remained healthy and in-line with our expectations.
2. We believe our companies are poised for growth. Many companies that suffered sharp declines in their share prices last year made the most of this slump by refocusing on the best opportunities and achieving profitability faster. In our view, these businesses have essentially de-risked themselves — and yet these improvements are not reflected in their current share prices.
3. We continue to assess the long-term implications of a higher cost of capital. We believe many companies that did not build sustainable businesses will start to run out of cash, thus reducing competition and benefiting companies that have already established valuable businesses and brands.

What We Are Seeing:

High yields have driven record inflows into money market funds. As investors crowd into money market funds while outflows from equities steepen, it seems the whole world has become content with earning the ~5% yield that Treasurys provide. But as history and human behavior have shown, envy and fear of missing out will inevitably creep back into the minds of market participants, who will start searching elsewhere for higher returns.

We believe our companies are poised for growth. Many of our companies that suffered sharp declines in their share prices last year made the most of this slump by refocusing on the best opportunities and achieving profitability faster. These companies are now starting to witness the fruits of their hard labor, are poised for growth, and more focused on execution than ever. In our view, these businesses have essentially de-risked themselves — and yet these improvements are not reflected in their current share prices.

Opportunistic buying of debt has been a common theme. Several of our companies bought back their debt for cents on the dollar given the selloff of their bonds. This is a transfer of wealth to equity holders and not only deleverages our companies but is akin to share repurchases at attractive prices (which we also love!).

Share price volatility, especially in the small and mid-cap space has been excessive. Several companies witnessed a 20-30% drawdown on the back of a single quarter's earnings release. As business owners, we believe true intrinsic value does not change that much quarter to quarter. However, guidance-obsessed market participants seem to be selling first and asking questions later.

Concerns over mega-cap mania. Given just a few companies are driving the majority of index returns year-to-date (the Magnificent 7), we worry about a new Nifty-Fifty era where market participants continue buying "safe," high quality stocks at any price. Market-cap-weighted indexes are great, until they aren't — especially when a handful of companies surge to new heights and increase concentration risks. Furthermore, index flows, driving performance, driving flows make prospective returns weaker. This reflexive dynamic weakens the system, yet this weakness does not seem apparent to investors at the moment.

What We Are Doing:

We maintain our belief that equities will be the best-performing asset class over the long-term. Equities provide ownership in the creativity, ingenuity, and productivity of hundreds of thousands of talented workers. While money can be inflated, talent cannot.

We remain highly invested alongside clients. We continue to allocate a significant portion of our deferred compensation into the portfolios we manage.

Recent market volatility has created buying opportunities. Higher interest rates and an increased cost of living continue to put pressure on the consumer. As a result, we have observed significant drawdowns in some consumer-oriented businesses and have taken advantage of the volatility to invest in some of these companies at compelling prices. We believe these companies provide a strong consumer value proposition and are resilient businesses whose value is not reflected in their current prices.

We remain focused on company-specific fundamentals. While market conditions and macro events change year to year, company fundamentals drive share price appreciation over the long-term, which, across portfolio holdings, have largely remained healthy and in-line with our expectations.

We continue to be objective and holistic in understanding the opportunities and challenges that each of our companies face. Questions we ask ourselves range from how big can the business become in the next 3-5 years, to what are its scale advantages and unit economics, what are management's motivations, and can the business provide a strong consumer value proposition while generating cash flow.

We continue build trusted relationships with management teams. We aim to provide constructive, strategic, and tactical advice as they navigate the current macroeconomic backdrop.

What We Are Watching:

Public versus private markets. Asset classes that don't have daily marks did not experience the pain or drawdown that public markets witnessed in 2022. However, higher interest rates should impact all asset classes and we believe, in some cases, the high valuations of private assets do not reflect fair value of what these companies would actually trade for.

Long-term implications of high borrowing costs. The lack of successful public IPOs and general shortage of deal volume again this year leads us to believe public markets — the largest pool of capital — are closed. Given the high cost of borrowing, we believe many companies that did not build sustainable businesses will start to run out of cash thus reducing competition and benefiting companies that have already established valuable businesses and brands.

Green shoots of a new business cycle are emerging. We are starting to see green shoots of a new business cycle, which we believe will push our companies into offense mode versus playing defense. We hope to get our fair share of success and create long-term value for our clients when our companies begin to reap the benefits of the wind on their back.

Morgan Stanley disclaimer goes here....

The views expressed in these recordings are those of the speaker and are current only through the date of the recording. These views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Eaton Vance disclaims any responsibility to update such views. These views may not be relied upon as investment advice and, because investment decisions for Eaton Vance are based on many factors, may not be relied upon as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any Eaton Vance strategy. The discussion herein is general in nature and is provided for informational purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

See video for additional important disclosures.

Important Risks and ETF Information
Eaton Vance High Yield ETF (EVHY) Diversification does not eliminate risk of loss. There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline. Market values can change daily due to economic and other events (e.g. natural disasters, health crises, terrorism, conflicts and social unrest) that affect markets, countries, companies or governments. It is difficult to predict the timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g. portfolio liquidity) of events. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in this portfolio. Please be aware that this portfolio may be subject to certain additional risks. Active Management Risk. In pursuing the Fund’s investment objective, the Adviser has considerable leeway in deciding which investments to buy, hold or sell on a day-to-day basis, and which trading strategies to use. For example, the Adviser, in its discretion, may determine to use some permitted trading strategies while not using others. The success or failure of such decisions will affect the Fund’s performance. Fixed-income securities are subject to the ability of an issuer to make timely principal and interest payments (credit risk), changes in interest rates (interest-rate risk), the creditworthiness of the issuer and general market liquidity market risk). In a rising interest-rate environment, bond prices may fall and may result in periods of volatility and increased portfolio redemptions. In a declining interest-rate environment, the portfolio may generate less income. Longer-term securities may be more sensitive to interest rate changes. High yield securities (“junk bonds”) are lower rated securities that may have a higher degree of credit and liquidity risk. Preferred securities are subject to interest rate risk and generally decreases in value if interest rates rise and increase in value if interest rates fall. Foreign securities are subject to currency, political, economic and market risks. The risks of investing in emerging market countries are greater than risks associated with investments in foreign developed countries. Illiquid securities may be more difficult to sell and value than publicly traded securities (liquidity risk). Derivative instruments may disproportionately increase losses and have a significant impact on performance. They also may be subject to counterparty, liquidity, valuation, correlation and market risks. By investing in investment company securities, the portfolio is subject to the underlying risks of that investment company's portfolio securities. In addition to the Portfolio's fees and expenses, the Portfolio generally would bear its share of the investment company's fees and expenses. New Fund Risk. A new portfolio's performance may not represent how the portfolio is expected to or may perform in the long term. In addition, there is a limited operating history for investors to evaluate and the portfolio may not attract sufficient assets to achieve investment and trading efficiencies. Authorized Participant Concentration Risk. The Portfolio has a limited number of intermediaries that act as authorized participants and none of these authorized participants is or will be obligated to engage in creation or redemption transactions. As a result, shares may trade at a discount to net asset value (“NAV”) and possibly face trading halts and/or delisting. Trading Risk. The market prices of Shares are expected to fluctuate, in some cases materially, in response to changes in the Portfolio's NAV, the intra-day value of holdings, and supply and demand for Shares. The Adviser cannot predict whether Shares will trade above, below or at their NAV. Buying or selling Shares in the secondary market may require paying brokerage commissions or other charges imposed by brokers as determined by that broker.

Parametric Equity Premium Income ETF (PAPI) Diversification does not eliminate risk of loss. There is no assurance that a fund will achieve its investment objective. Funds are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the fund will decline. Market values can change daily due to economic and other events (e.g. natural disasters, health crises, terrorism, conflicts and social unrest) that affect markets, countries, companies or governments. It is difficult to predict the timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g. portfolio liquidity) of events. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in this fund. Please be aware that this fund may be subject to certain additional risks. In general, equities securities’ values also fluctuate in response to activities specific to a company. Income Risk. The Fund’s ability to distribute income to shareholders will depend on the yield available on the equity securities held by the Fund and the premiums received by the Fund with respect to its written call options. The amount of the Fund’s distributions for any period may exceed the amount of the Fund’s income and gains for that period. In that case, some or all of the Fund’s distributions may constitute a return of capital to shareholders. Call Option Writing Risk. Writing call options involves the risk that the Fund may be required to sell the underlying security or instrument (or settle in cash an amount of equal value) at a disadvantageous price or below the market price of such underlying security or instrument, at the time the option is exercised. As the writer of a call option, the Fund forgoes, during the option’s life, the opportunity to profit from increases in the market value of the underlying security or instrument covering the option above the sum of the premium and the exercise price, but retains the risk of loss should the price of the underlying security or instrument decline. Additionally, the Fund’s call option writing strategy may not fully protect it against declines in the value of the market. In rising markets, a fund with a call writing strategy could significantly underperform the same fund without such an options writing strategy. The Fund will also incur a form of economic leverage through its use of call options, which could increase the volatility of the Fund’s returns and may increase the risk of loss to the Fund. There are special risks associated with uncovered option writing which expose the Fund to potentially significant loss. FLEX Options. The Fund utilizes FLEX Options guaranteed for settlement by the Options Clearing Corporation (“OCC”). The Fund bears the risk that the OCC will be unable or unwilling to perform its obligations under the FLEX Options contracts. In the unlikely event that the OCC becomes insolvent or is otherwise unable to meet its settlement obligations, the Fund could suffer significant losses. FLEX Options are subject to the risk that they may be less liquid than certain other securities, such as standardized options. Additionally, in connection with the creation and redemption of Fund shares, to the extent market participants are not willing or able to enter into FLEX Option transactions with the Fund, the Fund’s NAV and, in turn the share price of the Fund, could be negatively impacted. The value of a FLEX Option may not directly correlate to its underlying reference security or index. The Fund may experience losses from certain FLEX Option positions and certain FLEX Option positions may expire with little to no value. Illiquid Securities. The fund may make investments in securities that are or become illiquid or less liquid and which may be more difficult to sell and value (liquidity risk). Derivative instruments may disproportionately increase losses and have a significant impact on performance. They also may be subject to counterparty, liquidity, valuation, correlation and market risks. Active Management Risk. In pursuing the Fund’s investment objective, the adviser and/or subadviser has considerable leeway in deciding which investments to buy, hold or sell on a day-to-day basis, and which trading strategies to use. For example, the adviser and/or subadviser, in its discretion, may determine to use some permitted trading strategies while not using others. The success or failure of such decisions will affect the Fund’s performance. New Fund Risk. A new fund's performance may not represent how the fund is expected to or may perform in the long term. In addition, there is a limited operating history for investors to evaluate and the fund may not attract sufficient assets to achieve investment and trading efficiencies. Clearing Member Risk. Transactions in some types of derivatives, including FLEX Options, are required to be centrally cleared (“cleared derivatives”). In a transaction involving cleared derivatives, the Fund’s counterparty is a clearing house, such as the OCC, rather than a bank or broker. Since the Fund is not a member of clearing houses and only members of a clearing house (“clearing members”) can participate directly in the clearing house, the Fund will hold cleared derivatives through accounts at clearing members. In cleared derivatives positions, the Fund will make payments to and receive payments from a clearing house through their accounts at clearing members. The Fund is also subject to the risk that a limited number of clearing members are willing to transact on the Fund’s behalf, which heightens the risks associated with a clearing member’s default. If a clearing member defaults, the Fund could lose some or all of the benefits of a transaction entered into by the Fund with the clearing member. The loss of a clearing member for the Fund to transact with could result in increased transaction costs and other operational issues that could impede the Fund’s ability to implement its investment strategy. If the Fund cannot find a clearing member to transact with on the Fund’s behalf, the Fund may be unable to effectively implement its investment strategy. Counterparty. Counterparty risk generally refers to the risk that a counterparty on a derivatives transaction may not be willing or able to perform its obligations under the derivatives contract, and the related risks of having concentrated exposure to such a counterparty. If an OCC clearing member or OCC becomes insolvent, the Fund may have its positions closed or experience delays or difficulties in closing or exercising its FLEX Options positions and the Fund could suffer significant losses. Tax Risk. The Fund intends to limit the overlap between its stock holdings and the stock holdings of the underlying ETF or underlying index of options to less than 70% on an ongoing basis in an effort to avoid being subject to the “straddle rules” under federal income tax law. The Fund expects that the option contracts it writes will not be considered straddles. Under certain circumstances, however, the Fund may enter into options transactions or certain other investments that may constitute positions in a straddle. The straddle rules may affect the character of gains (or losses) realized by the Fund. Authorized Participant Concentration Risk. The Fund has a limited number of intermediaries that act as authorized participants and none of these authorized participants is or will be obligated to engage in creation or redemption transactions. As a result, shares may trade at a discount to net asset value (“NAV”) and possibly face trading halts and/or delisting. Trading Risk. The market prices of shares of the Fund are expected to fluctuate, in some cases materially, in response to changes in the Fund's NAV, the intra-day value of holdings, and supply and demand for Shares. The Adviser and Subadviser cannot predict whether shares will trade above, below or at their NAV. Buying or selling shares in the secondary market may require paying brokerage commissions or other charges imposed by brokers as determined by that broker.

Eaton Vance Intermediate Municipal Income ETF (EVIM) Diversification does not eliminate risk of loss. There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline. Market values can change daily due to economic and other events (e.g. natural disasters, health crises, terrorism, conflicts and social unrest) that affect markets, countries, companies or governments. It is difficult to predict the timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g. portfolio liquidity) of events. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in this portfolio. Please be aware that this portfolio may be subject to certain additional risks. Active Management Risk. In pursuing the Fund’s investment objective, the Adviser has considerable leeway in deciding which investments to buy, hold or sell on a day-to-day basis, and which trading strategies to use. For example, the Adviser, in its discretion, may determine to use some permitted trading strategies while not using others. The success or failure of such decisions will affect the Fund’s performance. Fixed-income securities are subject to the ability of an issuer to make timely principal and interest payments (credit risk), changes in interest rates (interest-rate risk), the creditworthiness of the issuer and general market liquidity (market risk). In a rising interest-rate environment, bond prices may fall and may result in periods of volatility and increased portfolio redemptions. In a declining interest-rate environment, the portfolio may generate less income. Longer-term securities may be more sensitive to interest rate changes. By investing in municipal obligations, the Fund may be susceptible to political, economic, regulatory or other factors affecting their issuers. While interest earned on municipal securities is generally not subject to federal income tax, any interest earned on taxable municipal securities is fully taxable at the federal level and may be subject to state and/or local income tax. Certain U.S. government securities purchased by the portfolio, such as those issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are not backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. It is possible that these issuers will not have the funds to meet their payment obligations in the future. Illiquid securities may be more difficult to sell and value than publicly traded securities (liquidity risk). Derivative instruments may disproportionately increase losses and have a significant impact on performance. They also may be subject to counterparty, liquidity, valuation, correlation and market risks. High yield securities (“junk bonds”) are lower rated securities that may have a higher degree of credit and liquidity risk. By investing in investment company securities, the portfolio is subject to the underlying risks of that investment company's portfolio securities. In addition to the Portfolio's fees and expenses, the Portfolio generally would bear its share of the investment company's fees and expenses. New Fund Risk. A new portfolio's performance may not represent how the portfolio is expected to or may perform in the long term. In addition, there is a limited operating history for investors to evaluate and the portfolio may not attract sufficient assets to achieve investment and trading efficiencies. Authorized Participant Concentration Risk. The Portfolio has a limited number of intermediaries that act as authorized participants and none of these authorized participants is or will be obligated to engage in creation or redemption transactions. As a result, shares may trade at a discount to net asset value (“NAV”) and possibly face trading halts and/or delisting. Trading Risk. The market prices of Shares are expected to fluctuate, in some cases materially, in response to changes in the Portfolio's NAV, the intra-day value of holdings, and supply and demand for Shares. The Adviser cannot predict whether Shares will trade above, below or at their NAV. Buying or selling Shares in the secondary market may require paying brokerage commissions or other charges imposed by brokers as determined by that broker.

The index is unmanaged and does not include any expenses, fees or sales charges. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Any index referred to herein is the intellectual property (including registered trademarks) of the applicable licensor.

Calvert, Eaton Vance and Parametric are part of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, the asset management division of Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc. is the adviser to the Eaton Vance ETFs, and the Parametric ETFs. Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited is the sub-adviser to Eaton Vance High Yield ETF. Parametric Portfolio Associates LLC is the sub-adviser to the Parametric ETFs. The ETFs are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC.